UNI can beat Louisville, but they need to do one thing really well: shoot the 3. Louisville is THE best defensive team last year (#1 in Ken Pomeroy's pace-adjusted defense stat), but they were not very efficient offensively (#103 in those same metrics).
If UNI can shoot the 3, they can keep up with Louisville's offense, which graduated some its few efficient players. They need to force Russ Smith into shooting, as he is highly inefficient. He actually was the worst in the NCAA at shooting mid-range shots.
The other important piece is minimizing turnovers and fast break attempts. UL lived on the fast break last season, and their field goal percentage jumps about 20% in the first 10 seconds after a rebound or steal. UNI needs to play like an experienced team an minimize turnovers to do well in this game.
I don't expect this game to end up as a win for UNI. But I do think they have a chance, and they should at least be able to prove whether they are ready or not for an at-large bid. If they can get 1-2 wins from this tournament it will be big for both UNI and the Valley.